These results suggest that climate change poses risks to price stability by having an upward impact on inflation, altering its seasonality and amplifying the impacts caused by extremes. Moreover, we estimate that the 2022 summer heat extreme increased food inflation in Europe by 0.67 (0.43-0.93) percentage-points and that future warming projected for 2035 would amplify the impacts of such extremes by 50%. Projections from state-of-the-art climate models show that in the absence of historically un-precedented adaptation, future warming will cause global increases in annual food and headline inflation of 0.92-3.23 and 0.32-1.18 percentage-points per year respectively, under 2035 projected climate (uncertainty range across emission scenarios, climate models and empirical specifications), as well as altering the seasonal dynamics of inflation. Flexibly accounting for heterogenous impacts across seasons and baseline climatic and socio-economic conditions, we find that increased average temperatures cause non-linear upwards inflationary pressures which persist over 12 months in both higher- and lower-income countries. Here we exploit a global dataset of monthly consumer price indices to identify the causal impacts of changes in climate on inflation, and to assess their implications under future warming. JEL Code F10 : International Economics→Trade→General F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of TradeĪbstract Understanding of the macroeconomic effects of climate change is developing rapidly, but the implications for past and future inflation remain less well understood. Stronger pre-FTA regulatory intensity is associated to a high liberalization potential, favouring larger FTA estimates. The main source of variation is represented by asymmetries in ex ante trade barriers across sectors, with a prominent role for non-tariff instruments. We then investigate heterogeneity in pair-industry-specific estimates of the FTA. When we drop these two export categories from the analysis, we show that the FTA exerted a large effect on trade in both directions, increasing bilateral exports by about 30 percent. Compared to previous studies, our findings suggest a different explanation for the poor performances of Korean exports to the EU in the post-FTA period, namely offshoring patterns in electronics and a broad-based decline in the shipbuilding industry. In line with literature, we find that the FTA exerted asymmetric effects in bilateral exports across directions of trade. By applying a state-of-the-art structural gravity model with intranational (i.e., domestic) trade and using disaggregated data, we quantify both the trade impact and the observed heterogeneity in the FTA estimates. Abstract This paper empirically investigates the effect of the EU-South Korea free trade agreement (FTA) on manufacturing trade flows.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |